{"id":62479,"date":"2024-10-15T09:07:40","date_gmt":"2024-10-15T14:07:40","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/esreviral.com\/?p=62479"},"modified":"2024-10-15T09:07:41","modified_gmt":"2024-10-15T14:07:41","slug":"una-consultora-se-animo-a-ponerle-fecha-a-la-salida-del-cepo-cual-es","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/esreviral.com\/?p=62479","title":{"rendered":"Una consultora se anim\u00f3 a ponerle fecha a la salida del cepo \u00bfCu\u00e1l es?"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

A pesar de la disminuci\u00f3n en la brecha cambiaria y el riesgo pa\u00eds, el Gobierno sigue manteniendo su discurso oficial, negando cualquier definici\u00f3n sobre la salida del cepo. Sin embargo, la Fundaci\u00f3n Mediterr\u00e1nea, a trav\u00e9s de un informe del economista Jorge Vasconcelos, especula que el fin de estas restricciones podr\u00eda llegar en el pr\u00f3ximo verano.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Vasconcelos titula su informe \u00abVeranito cambiario: \u00bfdesemboca en la salida del cepo?\u00bb, se\u00f1alando que la aparente calma en el mercado ha reforzado la percepci\u00f3n de la continuidad del cepo. Un indicio de esto es que los contratos de ROFEX para marzo de 2025 del tipo de cambio oficial se pactan a 1.168 pesos.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

El economista a\u00f1ade que, aunque el Gobierno quisiera contradecir su discurso, no lo har\u00eda antes de las elecciones legislativas del pr\u00f3ximo a\u00f1o. Seg\u00fan \u00e9l, la \u00fanica oportunidad para levantar el cepo ser\u00eda durante el verano, bajo la supervisi\u00f3n del FMI, aunque por ahora no hay se\u00f1ales claras de esa posibilidad.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u00daNETE A NUESTRO CANAL DE TELEGRAM PARA ESTAR INFORMADO<\/a><\/strong><\/em><\/strong><\/em><\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Vasconcelos destaca que el Banco Central ha acumulado un saldo comprador de US$ 811 millones en las \u00faltimas diez ruedas del mercado oficial. Esto, en parte, es gracias a los efectos del blanqueo, que ha generado una entrada de capitales y un aumento de los dep\u00f3sitos en d\u00f3lares, los cuales crecieron en US$ 1.190 millones desde agosto. Sin embargo, advierte que los efectos de esta situaci\u00f3n podr\u00edan ser temporales, y cuando disminuyan, el problema de los flujos externos resurgir\u00e1.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Adem\u00e1s, subraya que para mantener el rebote de la actividad econ\u00f3mica en 2025, ser\u00e1 necesario aumentar las importaciones en US$ 10.000 millones y, al mismo tiempo, comenzar a recuperar las reservas netas del Banco Central, que actualmente son negativas en US$ 6.400 millones.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Vasconcelos compara esta posible salida del cepo con la implementada en 2015 por Mauricio Macri, se\u00f1alando que debe ser vista como irreversible para evitar generar incertidumbre. Aunque el nivel de gasto p\u00fablico actual, medido en d\u00f3lares, es considerablemente m\u00e1s bajo que en 2015, lo cual act\u00faa como un estabilizador, el escenario sigue siendo incierto.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u00daNETE A NUESTRO GRUPO DE WHATSAPP PARA ESTAR INFORMADO<\/em><\/a><\/strong><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

a Fundaci\u00f3n Mediterr\u00e1nea sostiene que el Gobierno tiene \u00abuna sola ventana\u00bb para desmontar los controles.
\nLa deuda p\u00fablica es una de las principales razones que demora la salida.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":3,"featured_media":62480,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"jnews-multi-image_gallery":[],"jnews_single_post":{"subtitle":"","format":"standard","video":"","gallery":"","source_name":"","source_url":"","via_name":"","via_url":"","override_template":"0","override":[{"template":"4","single_blog_custom":"","parallax":"1","fullscreen":"1","layout":"right-sidebar","sidebar":"new-widget-area","second_sidebar":"default-sidebar","sticky_sidebar":"1","share_position":"top","share_float_style":"share-monocrhome","show_share_counter":"1","show_view_counter":"1","show_featured":"1","show_post_meta":"1","show_post_author":"1","show_post_author_image":"1","show_post_date":"1","post_date_format":"default","post_date_format_custom":"Y\/m\/d","show_post_category":"1","show_post_reading_time":"1","post_reading_time_wpm":"300","show_zoom_button":"1","zoom_button_out_step":"2","zoom_button_in_step":"3","show_post_tag":"1","show_prev_next_post":"1","show_popup_post":"1","number_popup_post":"1","show_author_box":"1","show_post_related":"1","show_inline_post_related":"0"}],"override_image_size":"0","image_override":[{"single_post_thumbnail_size":"crop-500","single_post_gallery_size":"crop-500"}],"trending_post":"0","trending_post_position":"meta","trending_post_label":"Trending","sponsored_post":"0","sponsored_post_label":"Sponsored by","sponsored_post_name":"","sponsored_post_url":"","sponsored_post_logo_enable":"0","sponsored_post_logo":"","sponsored_post_desc":"","disable_ad":"0"},"jnews_primary_category":{"id":"","hide":""},"jnews_social_meta":{"fb_title":"","fb_description":"","fb_image":"","twitter_title":"","twitter_description":"","twitter_image":""},"jnews_review":[],"enable_review":"0","type":"percentage","name":"","summary":"","brand":"","sku":"","good":[{"good_text":""}],"bad":[{"bad_text":""}],"score_override":"","override_value":"","rating":[{"rating_text":"","rating_number":"10"}],"price":[{"shop":"","price":"","link":"","icon":""}],"jnews_override_counter":{"override_view_counter":"0","view_counter_number":"0","override_share_counter":"0","share_counter_number":"0","override_like_counter":"0","like_counter_number":"0","override_dislike_counter":"0","dislike_counter_number":"0"},"jnews_post_split":{"enable_post_split":"0","post_split":[{"template":"1","tag":"h2","numbering":"asc","mode":"normal","first":"0","enable_toc":"0","toc_type":"normal"}]},"footnotes":""},"categories":[58,61],"tags":[44,15953,60,45,1959],"class_list":["post-62479","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-argentina","category-economia","tag-argentina","tag-cepo","tag-dolar","tag-noticias","tag-riesgo-pais"],"amp_enabled":true,"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/esreviral.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/62479","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/esreviral.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/esreviral.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/esreviral.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/3"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/esreviral.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=62479"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/esreviral.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/62479\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/esreviral.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/62480"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/esreviral.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=62479"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/esreviral.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=62479"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/esreviral.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=62479"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}